The economic forces that have shaped the Radio Access Network (RAN) market over the past 30-plus years are expected to influence risk appetite and RAN investments for the remainder of this decade. Despite the current period of heightened uncertainty and increased skepticism about the telecom and RAN outlook, our long-term perspective on this market remains unchanged. We believe that the tangible and intangible assets operators have amassed over the past decades are essential for addressing the evolving connectivity needs of consumers and businesses. While new business models and competitors will emerge, we still foresee operators playing a leading role in providing connectivity by the end of this decade.
At the same time, RAN’s growth prospects remain challenging. Operators can increase capital intensities over the short term to support the deployment of new technologies, but this acceleration tends to be temporary, resulting in a relatively flat RAN trendline over time, ultimately limited by operator revenue trends. The potential upside from emerging opportunities, including Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and private wireless, will play a crucial role in compensating for tepid Mobile Broadband (MBB) advancements.
After growing at a 2% CAGR in the 4G era, global RAN revenues are projected to increase at a 1% CAGR between 2020 and 2030. The base case scenario is built on the assumption that RAN revenues peaked in 2021 and will continue to trend downward before picking up momentum in the outer part of the forecast period.
Other highlights from the November 2023 RAN 2030 Forecast include:
Cumulative 2020-2030 RAN revenues are projected to surpass $0.4 Trillion
Macro RAN deployments will dominate the first 6G wave
Cloud RAN is expected to play a leading role from the start with 6G
Small cells will comprise ~15% of the 2030 RAN market
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